Towards Prosperity: August 2010

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Aug 31 2010
CB3
– August 31, 2010 - 5:51pm

 

A new day is coming, yes, a new day is coming.
It’s gonna be a brighter day, yes, it gonna be a better day.

~
The band “Cannon”, 1971 

Yesterday, my blog asked if you were happy.  With so much negative news, it is easy for us as investors to be discouraged.  My advice is to decide not to let the media fear mongers get you down.

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as a pair of positive data surprises helped alleviate continued investor anxiety over the economy's strength. Item #1 is that Bloomberg reports that U.S. consumer confidence rose more than expected in August, lifted by a mild improvement in the short-term outlook. But Item #2...

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Aug 30 2010
CB3
– August 30, 2010 - 12:43pm

Most folks are about as happy
as they make up their minds to be. 

~Abraham Lincoln 

 Not happy? Economy got your down?  Looking for positive signs?  Let me help; it’s pretty easy:

1)   Good news in global merger and acquisitions (M&A) in 2010: a whopping 68% of these M&As included cash in the deal versus only 62% in 2009.  This says to me that corporations have cash and are willing to spend it when they see an opportunity.

2)   This past week’s (it was really a couple weeks ago when it hit the press) biggest deal was all cash: the Intel $48 per share cash offer for McAffee.

3)   Now, to be fair, this M&A activity might just...

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Aug 26 2010
CB3
– August 26, 2010 - 11:05pm

I look around me and all that I see is the pain of the world.
In every nook and cranny I try to shy away, but it shines like light,
making itself known, even in the dead of night.
It pierces my peripheral, so it's hard to ignore, I try to look for the good.
But I see the bad, and nothing more …

     ~ The Dying Romantic, 2010

 Ok, that kind of thinking makes for amusing poetry.  However, it is neither a healthy nor accurate look at the current economic setting here in the USA.  Today, the stock market did it typical gyrations of late, reacting to every pesky news burst that hits the wire.  We all wait to see what the revised 2nd Quarter GDP numbers are at...

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Aug 25 2010
CB3
– August 25, 2010 - 10:20pm

And we both feel lost. But I remember what Susan said:
How love is found in the things we've given up.
More than in the things that we have kept.
And ain't it funny what people say;
And ain't it funny what people write;
And ain't it funny how it hits you so hard
in the middle of the night.
    
     ~ Rich Mullins, 1993

Wednesday was another joyride in the market.  We gapped down, but then closed up after retracing the losses most of the day.  Bonds hit a new two-year high, so participants in our Ultra Income and Equity Income programs are doing nicely, even when Tuesday was down over 1.2%!  We will get this uncertainty, one...

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Aug 24 2010
CB3
– August 24, 2010 - 11:06pm

Talk? Talk?? It's only talk.
Arguments. Agreements. Advice.
Answers. Articulate announcements.
It's only talk: elephant talk.
     ~ King Crimson, 1981

Tuesday’s salient data was that Existing Home Sales Plunge 27%. That caused treasury yields to hit new lows. Home sales of existing homes dropped twice as much as expected, worse than every economist forecast, to a 15 year low. Existing Home Inventories soared to 12.5 month, the highest number of months of inventory since 1999.

Ever heard an elephant talk?  They do a lot of wailing, but don’t say very much.

Now, let’s look at this data another way. 

Reading the punditz and other bloggers, I’d (you’d) think the world is...

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Aug 23 2010
CB3
– August 23, 2010 - 11:27pm

When we are angry or depressed in our creativity,
we have misplaced our power. We have allowed
someone else to determine our worth, and then
we are angry at being undervalued.  

     ~ Julia Cameron 

And so it is on a day of remarkably low trading volume and remarkably high anxiety, we find it is easy to see (on the quote screens) the price of everything traded, and yet we know – in some ways the value of nothing out there.  And stocks seem undervalued to me. 

You may sense a little political thought in here tonight, but the reality is that we are waiting for so much government data – and wondering about too much government intervention in the free markets...

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Aug 22 2010
CB3
– August 22, 2010 - 11:09pm

  Confusion will be my epitaph.
  As I crawl a cracked and broken path
  If we make it we can all sit back and laugh.
  But, I fear tomorrow I'll be crying,
  Yes, I fear tomorrow I'll be crying.…            
       ~ King Crimson, 1969

Ok, now, really folks, it’s not that bad!  Why the “confusion?”  Fear and uncertainty are both purveyors of angst.  The markets are holding up pretty well considering the negative sentiment.  But the financial press and other fear-mongering blogs out there would have you believe that it is.  Let’s look objectivity where we really are in the...

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Aug 20 2010
CB3
– August 20, 2010 - 9:59pm

 The trees and I are shaken by the same wind.
 But, whereas the trees will lose their withered leaves
 I just can’t seem to let them loose…           
    
     ~ Tony Banks of Genesis, 1980

The market had a tough time shaking off a spate of bad news this week.  The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.4 percent to 1,071.69 at 4 p.m. in New York, the lowest level in a month and extending its weekly loss to 0.7 percent.

The good news, as my title opines, is that the U.S. Dollar was strong against all sixteen major currencies today.  With all the bad news, investors and traders are still flocking to...

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Aug 19 2010
CB3
– August 19, 2010 - 5:34pm

“Get a job Sha na na na, sha na na na na
And when I get the paper, I read it through and through.
And my girl never fails to say if there is any work for me,
And when I go back to the house, I hear the woman's mouth
Preaching and a crying, tell me that I'm lying 'bout a job …
… that I never could find.”            ~ The Silhouettes, 1958

(If you are interested in the song: http://www.stlyrics.com/lyrics/standbyme/getajob.htm)

I continue to expect just a little improvement in the employment report week to week.  Alas, it was...

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Aug 18 2010
CB3
– August 18, 2010 - 4:26pm

“The American taxpayer is someone who works for the federal government but doesn't have to take the civil service examination.”            ~ Ronald Reagan

I continue to have clients call or write me asking about how safe their social security income is going to be.  Regrettably, I am not very confident in the future of social security.  When I tell my clients that I can compare it to what Bernie Madoff did, some recoil in angst.  How could that be?  Well, here is a little table to show you just how Bernie and the U.S. government are very similar in this one aspect:

Bernie Madoff Social Security

Takes...

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